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There are now well over 100 such studies (including over 50 Vernon Clark studies) involving thousands of charts and hundreds of astrologers, but none have produced a convincing disconfirmation. Appeals to the Gauquelin findings hardly count when there is no Gauquelin effect for half the planets, or for signs, or for aspects, or for the 99.996% of the population who are not eminent, and there is likely contamination from social artifacts anyway, see The Gauquelin work 2. Artifacts vs puzzles on this website under Gauquelin.

In other words the ordinary explanation of astrology has resisted repeated attempts at disconfirmation and can thus claim to be the first successful explanation of astrology. Of course it may or may not survive future attempts at disconfirmation, but until then it seems premature to consider other explanations.

So far the aim has been to explain how astrology works. We now move from explanations of (perceived) truth to explanations of (perceived) value. Previously the issues included things like how does astrology work and what techniques are best.

Now the issues include things like: Why has astrology been popular for so long despite its internal disagreements? What matters most -- the client, the problem, the technique, or the astrologer? How can the value of (a demonstrably untrue) astrology be improved?

For clues we can consider sun sign astrology.

Although every controlled test has shown it to be untrue (people with sun sign X are no more X-ish than other sun signs), it is the most popular kind of astrology in the Western world.

Its easy commercialisation explains supply but not demand. If we can explain why sun signs are so popular despite being untrue, it might help in explaining the popularity of astrology proper.

Whatever we may think of sun signs, they provide anthony keidis dating 2008 millions of people with a rich source of cues for constructing their identities -- personality, lifestyle, romance, occupation, everything. In the old days our cues to finding a personal identity were taken from stable family and social settings. Today this stability is greatly reduced, and traditional cues may well be less important than those provided by TV, celebrities, and the occult. This applies even if the cues are false, simply because belief in their truth will make them true in their consequences just as a sound bank can collapse if people believe it is unsound.

The asian and american dating edicate efficacy of false cues has long been apparent for sun signs, where the observed effect size for sun sign self-attribution is typically 0.09, equivalent to 54.5% hits when 50% is expected by chance. When false cues are prevented the effect disappears, leaving nothing for sun signs to explain.

To put this another way, sun signs have personal utility (they address our favourite subjects, namely us and our relationships, in a positive and nonjudgemental way), social utility (they help us talk about ourselves, creating closeness, and nobody is left out), simplicity (they require only a birth date and are easy to learn), perceived validity (they are perceived to be mostly are cheryl and chad dating true) and availability (only the weather forecast is more pervasive).

All of the above reasons are plausible, and although their relative contributions have yet to be established, an explanation would most likely embrace all of them.

Such an explanation can be simply stated -- sun signs are popular because they are simple, cheap, fill a need, and seem to work. How well does this apply to astrology proper?

It is arguable whether astrology proper is simple.

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